IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.7	#133
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.6	#151
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.4	#130

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.3	#154

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	18.0%	27.4%	16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	2.0%	0.2%
Average Seed	13.5	12.6	13.8

.500 or above	72.9%	89.7%	69.8%
.500 or above in Conference	80.9%	90.4%	79.2%
Conference Champion	22.4%	32.5%	20.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.1%	0.8%	2.3%

First Four	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
First Round	17.7%	27.0%	16.0%
Second Round	2.5%	5.4%	1.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	1.1%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 3	18 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	53	@ Missouri	L	63-74	15%
Nov 12, 2019	172	@ Coastal Carolina	L	75-76	48%
Nov 17, 2019	348	Coppin St.	W	83-64	96%
Nov 20, 2019	120	@ Ball St.	L	72-76	34%
Nov 23, 2019	265	Texas Southern	W	88-77	83%
Nov 30, 2019	57	@ Arkansas	L	72-82	18%
Dec 03, 2019	150	@ Miami (OH)	L	70-72	43%
Dec 08, 2019	274	Eastern Kentucky	W	90-79	83%
Dec 15, 2019	187	Illinois St.	W	74-67	72%
Dec 21, 2019	96	@ UNC Greensboro	L	68-74	31%
Dec 28, 2019	250	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	75-65	80%
Dec 30, 2019	167	Green Bay	W	84-79	66%
Jan 03, 2020	219	@ Detroit Mercy	W	79-77	57%
Jan 05, 2020	201	@ Oakland	W	75-74	55%
Jan 10, 2020	131	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	74-77	40%
Jan 12, 2020	253	@ IUPUI	W	76-72	62%
Jan 16, 2020	225	Youngstown St.	W	80-72	75%
Jan 18, 2020	311	Cleveland St.	W	81-67	88%
Jan 24, 2020	103	@ Wright St.	L	67-72	32%
Jan 31, 2020	167	@ Green Bay	L	81-82	47%
Feb 02, 2020	250	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	72-68	61%
Feb 06, 2020	201	Oakland	W	78-71	73%
Feb 08, 2020	219	Detroit Mercy	W	82-74	74%
Feb 14, 2020	253	IUPUI	W	79-69	79%
Feb 16, 2020	131	Illinois-Chicago	W	77-74	60%
Feb 20, 2020	311	@ Cleveland St.	W	78-70	74%
Feb 22, 2020	225	@ Youngstown St.	W	77-75	58%
Feb 28, 2020	103	Wright St.	W	70-69	52%
Projected Record						17 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	2.4	5.0	6.1	4.8	2.6	0.8		22.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.4	4.7	6.2	4.8	1.8	0.3				19.4	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.9	5.2	5.7	2.5	0.4	0.0					16.0	3rd
4th									0.2	2.0	4.7	4.2	1.3	0.1							12.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.6	4.1	3.0	0.7	0.0								9.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	1.4	3.0	2.2	0.5	0.0									7.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	1.0	2.2	1.6	0.3	0.0										5.2	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	1.1	0.2	0.0											4.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0												2.4	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0													1.1	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.1	3.4	5.0	6.6	8.8	10.2	11.6	12.3	11.3	10.3	8.0	5.1	2.6	0.8			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	100.0%	2.6		2.6	0.0
16-2	94.5%	4.8		4.3	0.5	0.0
15-3	77.0%	6.1		4.3	1.7	0.1
14-4	48.9%	5.0		2.6	2.1	0.3	0.0
13-5	21.2%	2.4		0.7	1.1	0.5	0.0	0.0
12-6	4.3%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	22.4%	22.4		15.5	5.6	1.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		69.2%	56.5%	12.7%	9.9		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2		29.3%
17-1	2.6%		60.7%	55.6%	5.1%	11.5				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0		1.0		11.5%
16-2	5.1%		45.4%	43.1%	2.3%	12.5								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	2.8		4.0%
15-3	8.0%		35.0%	34.6%	0.4%	13.1										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0	5.2		0.7%
14-4	10.3%		30.3%	30.2%	0.1%	13.6												0.0	0.4	1.1	1.0	0.5	0.1	7.2		0.1%
13-5	11.3%		22.5%	22.5%		14.1													0.1	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.1	8.7
12-6	12.3%		17.0%	17.0%		14.5													0.0	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.4	10.2
11-7	11.6%		11.8%	11.8%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.3	10.2
10-8	10.2%		6.5%	6.5%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	9.6
9-9	8.8%		6.6%	6.6%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	8.2
8-10	6.6%		4.1%	4.1%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	6.3
7-11	5.0%		1.9%	1.9%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	4.9
6-12	3.4%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																0.0	0.0	3.4
5-13	2.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
4-14	1.1%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
3-15	0.5%																							0.5
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		18.0%	17.6%	0.4%	13.5		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.8	2.7	4.1	4.5	3.6	1.6	82.0		0.5%